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Chủ đề: Cổ phiếu STB: kịch bản bị săn đuổi và khả năng “tạo tiền”

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    Cổ phiếu STB: kịch bản bị săn đuổi và khả năng “tạo tiền”

    Các ông chủ nhà băng tại sao “tín nhiệm” cổ phiếu của đối thủ cạnh tranh, thay vì cổ phiếu của chính ngân hàng mình đang gây dựng?

    Câu chuyện được quan tâm nhất trên TTCK hiện nay vẫn là việc một nhóm NĐT ủy quyền cho EIB gây áp lực đòi thay thế toàn bộ HĐQT STB.

    Có hợp lý khi lý giải các ồn ào xung quanh Sacombank hiện nay được dẫn dắt bởi động cơ M&A đúng nghĩa?

    Bỏ qua một số bất đồng về quan điểm, một số tranh luận liên quan đến pháp lý, việc Eximbank tuyên bố nhận được sự ủy quyền của nhóm cổ đông chiếm đa số (trên 51%) ra yêu sách bầu lại toàn bộ HĐQT Sacombank dù chưa có tiền lệ, nhưng cũng không nên nghiêm trọng hóa vấn đề. Với vị thế cổ đông lớn, Eximbank có thể gây ra các áp lực có thiện chí lên Sacombank, nếu tạo được luồng sinh khí mới tác động tích cực tới hoạt động quản trị của ngân hàng mà Eximbank nắm gần 10% cổ phần.

    Xa hơn, như một số suy luận, từ vị thế của một cổ đông lớn tạo tiền đề cho Eximbank hay một ngân hàng khác sau này hướng tới việc hợp nhất có sự đồng thuận của Sacombank cũng nên xem là một điểm sáng tích cực và nên ủng hộ. Bởi lẽ, so với các nước trong khu vực, nhiều ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam vẫn chỉ ở quy mô nhỏ, thực hiện các nghiệp vụ đơn giản mang tính truyền thống. Về lý thuyết, sự hợp nhất mang tính tự nguyện trong kịch bản giả định của một vài ngân hàng nên được ủng hộ, khi giúp tiết kiệm nguồn lực xã hội, cũng như hứa hẹn mang lại dịch vụ tốt hơn cho khách hàng.

    Nhưng vấn đề không đơn giản như các lý giải trên phương diện lý thuyết. Quy định hiện hành không cho phép một NĐT nắm cổ phần chi phối tại nhiều ngân hàng. Trong thực tế, khó có thể tin quy định này không bị vượt qua bằng cách này hay cách khác, bằng việc sở hữu chéo cổ phần của các ông chủ nhà băng công khai hay giấu mặt. Với các ồn ào diễn ra xung quanh Sacombank, chân dung một số ông chủ nhà băng ngân hàng đã dần lộ diện.

    Về logic, sự đi xuống không thể đoán biết của TTCK vài năm qua tạo cơ hội cho nhóm NĐT này nắm trong tay một tỷ lệ cổ phần Sacombank đủ lớn, dù có thể mục tiêu ban đầu chỉ là đầu tư tài chính. Nhưng với mức giá cổ phiếu khá cao trước đây, cộng với gánh nặng lãi suất thời gian qua, giá vốn đầu tư thực tế là khá cao.

    Với kịch bản lãi suất cho vay năm 2012 duy trì ở mức 17 - 22%, chắc chắn nhóm NĐT này đang gặp áp lực không nhỏ khi đã bỏ ra hàng ngàn tỷ đồng. Các ông chủ nhà băng này thừa hiểu, cổ tức một ngân hàng trung bình trong vài năm tới chỉ có thể duy trì ở mức 10 - 12%/năm.

    Với mức giá vốn cao, tối đa các NĐT này chỉ có thể hưởng lợi tức 5 - 6%, trong khi cũng số tiền này có thể dùng để kinh doanh và thu về ngay lãi suất trên 20%/năm. Nhóm NĐT này không phải là các tay mơ về kinh doanh, nên không thể không nhìn thấy vấn đề. Một điều đáng quan tâm khác, các ông chủ nhà băng này tại sao “tín nhiệm” cổ phiếu của đối thủ cạnh tranh, thay vì cổ phiếu của chính ngân hàng mình đang gây dựng?

    Câu hỏi và bài toán kinh doanh phiêu lưu trên trở nên dễ hiểu nếu động cơ được cắt nghĩa bằng M&A, nhất là thương vụ có sự tham gia của nhiều ông chủ nhà băng. Giả định này có lý, vì có lúc giá cổ phiếu Sacombank giảm xuống sát mệnh giá, dù Sacombank là một ngân hàng bán lẻ hàng đầu với 10.000 nhân viên, mạng lưới rộng lớn với hàng triệu khách hàng. Thay vì phát triển một ngân hàng nhỏ, hòa hợp với Sacombank cũng là một kế hoạch không tồi.

    Tuy nhiên, thực tế thì giả định này khó đứng vững, vì các ngân hàng Việt Nam hiện nay cung cấp các dịch vụ đơn giản. Sự sáp nhập của các ngân hàng có chiến lược phát triển giống nhau hay có phân khúc khách hàng tương đồng e rằng không tạo ra sức mạnh hay tạo ra giá trị gia tăng, nhất là khi kế hoạch được xây dựng vội vã, mục tiêu chưa rõ ràng. Sự chồng chéo về mạng lưới, hệ thống thậm chí có thể kéo hiệu quả hoạt động thụt lùi.

    Trên TTCK Việt Nam thời gian qua, hoạt động M&A dù diễn ra với sắc thái đa dạng, nhưng mang đều một nét nét tương đồng: quyết tâm sở hữu một tỷ lệ cổ phần đủ lớn bao giờ cũng hướng tới mục tiêu chuyển giao quyền lãnh đạo. Vậy nên, lý giải thế nào về động cơ thay thế HĐQT Sacombank từ nhóm các cổ đông lớn?

    Một số ý kiến nghi ngờ kịch bản Sacombank là đối tượng bị săn đuổi sau một loạt yếu tố hội tụ tự nhiên: sự bất mãn và ly khai đồng loạt trong một thời gian ngắn của cổ đông chiến lược lâu năm; một số khiếm khuyết nhất định trong hoạt động quản trị của một số thành viên HĐQT, một lượng cổ phần Sacombank lớn nằm trong tay các ông chủ nhà băng.

    Những yếu tố ngẫu nhiên dẫn tới cuộc “tấn công” được dẫn dắt bởi động cơ dàn xếp các bài toán tài chính của một nhóm NĐT phía sau: cổ phiếu ngân hàng suy cho cùng có khả năng “tạo tiền” nhanh nhất nếu tập hợp một số lượng đủ lớn để chi phối hoạt động điều hành.

    Sự đổi chủ của các ngân hàng nên được xem là bình thường, nếu mang lại sự phát triển, lớn mạnh và lợi ích cho tất cả các bên liên quan. Tuy nhiên, ngân hàng là lĩnh vực đặc thù, việc chuyển giao quyền kiểm soát không đơn giản là sự thay thế lãnh đạo, mà còn phải xem xét đến quyền lợi của các cổ đông nhỏ, tính an toàn và hoạt động bền vững của cả hệ thống.

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